28th
Apr
2010

Oil: The Positive and Negative


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Crumbling credit ratings in Greece and Portugal have led to a third straight day of decline for oil prices. This fueled concerns that global demand for oil may be slow to rise over the coming months.However, there is reason to be optimistic about the oil market.

U.S. crude oil stockpiles increased 5.3 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said yesterday. Based on the industry group’s data, that’s the ninth weekly gain, bringing inventories to the highest since May 2009.

Gasoline inventories probably gained 800,000 barrels from 224.9 million in the previous week, the survey showed. Supplies of distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel, are expected to have risen 1.5 million barrels from 148.9 million. Refiners likely maintained operating rates at an average 85.9 percent of capacity after five weeks of increases.

“Below $81 we will see some fresh buying,” said Hasegawa at Newedge. “Everyone is still expecting the world economy will rebound.”

I’d guess the oil industry will be rebound around the start of summer–not fully, but substantially.


19th
Apr
2010

Birth Control Battle Royale!


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It seems hard to remember a time before birth control pills–they revolutionized how we think about sex and reproduction. But, it’s also a big business–women have to purchase these pills every month, and they do so by the hundreds of millions. Now there is somewhat of a battle of the titans occurring in this industry.

The U.S. Food & Drug Administration approved it in 1960, and the next year, German giant Bayer introduced it in Europe. Bayer profited handsomely in the ensuing decades, tweaking its contraceptive formula and extending its patents. Even in 2009—with the global contraceptive market awash in cheap generics—the company pulled in about $1.7 billion on its branded birth control pills, Yaz and Yasmin.Now, Bayer faces competition of a different magnitude. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA), the Israeli generic drugmaker known for its Pac-Man-like acquisitions of smaller competitors, aims to triple its annual sales in the category of women’s health to $1 billion as early as 2012. A large portion of the $650 million Teva needs to reach that goal is likely to come from birth-control products the company acquires in future deals.

It will be interesting to see if TEVA can accomplish this goal, or if they’re just talking big goals up to investors. This is a major market and one that is now expanding into the third world too.